Thesis:

Our hope was that Bitcoin would hold its last macro low at $74,400 and keep the higher timeframe (HTF) structure intact. Unfortunately, this did not end up happening. This doesn’t mean it won’t set new highs. It doesn’t mean there won’t be an altseason. But as the odds change, I have to switch up my gameplan.

There’s a strong argument that BTC creating a bullish megaphone pattern, which we’ve saw happen last year with Nividia & Google. This count shows one more high for BTC, near the $155K target that we’ve discussed for the last 8 months. We also never got an actual altseason, as has been demonstrated by the OTHERS and TOTAL2/3 charts. But breaking the HTF changes the probability for me of that happening, so I need to make an adjustment.

I’ll be taking more off the table on my Alts on this next move up than I would’ve, especially as BTC and the Altcoin Indices approach their retracement levels. As for exact percentages, that I’ll decide as we get closer and I can evaluate the whole macro picture. I’ll also be setting some stop losses on my alts in the event of another liquidation event to protect myself from downside.

I think the easiest way to show you everything I’m evaluating is to list out both the “Bull” and “Bear” arguments. I’ve also included the links to the videos where each of these topics are discussed!

Bulls

·      $RTY New Highs (small cap stocks, risk on) Watch

·      BTC Bullish Megaphone Pattern Watch

·      ISM big print, now above 50 (Expansion) Watch

·      Fear and Greed All-Time Low (5)

·      ETH, ETH/BTC Watch

·      OTHERS, OTHERS/BTC Watch

·      BTC.D Watch

·      USDT.D Weekly & Monthly RSIs Overbought

·      Clarity Act

·      6-Month Oversold Crypto RSIs

·      Dow Jones Transportation Index Watch

·      Major US Indices at ATHs

·      International Stock Markets at ATHs Watch

·      10yr Yields Breaking Down Watch

·      $DXY Down Watch

·      Precious Metals Ran First Watch

·      Quantitative Easing (QE) Watch

·      Credit Spreads Tightening Watch

· NVIDIA Pattern ‘24-’25 Watch

· Coinbase Oversold Weekly & Monthly Watch

· Copper Pulse Indicator Watch

· Korean Stock Market Expansion Watch

· $BTC Cost of Production Zone Hit Watch

Bears

·      BTC 2022 Bear Market Fractal

·      200W SMA at 58K

·      Most coins took out April 2024 Lows

·      Exchange Manipulation (October 10)

·      Regulation Delays

·      Geopolitical Conflict (Iran, Russia/Ukraine)

·      Rising Unemployment Watch

·      Rate Cuts Watch

·      Consumer Debt All Time High

·      Chapter 7 & 11 Bankruptcy Rising

·      “4 Year Cycle Theory”

Will we get an Altseason? I honestly can’t answer that. Will crypto recover at all this year? Will Alts have their shining moment against BTC? My argument based on all the above is yes. But as for the magnitude of the move, we’ll have to play that as it comes. And that’s why I’ll be layering out at specific levels and protecting myself from downside as we continue to move up.

As always, I’ll let you guys know any time I do ANYTHING. You’re my people, we’re a team, and we’re all going to win in the end, I have zero doubts.