Thesis:

Right now, the biggest question for me is whether BTC is in Distribution (topping formation) or Reaccumulation (consolidation before continuation of uptrend). I put out a video about this on 10/15 that’s worth a watch. With that being said, as of right now the volume profile for BTC doesn’t fit distribution - there hasn’t been sustained selling momentum after our initial large drop. That fact is a point for the Bulls.

The Russel2000 is breaking into new All-Time Highs. We’ve discussed and shown data numerous times on the channel about how that has been a precursor to altseason. I really want to see the weekly close (10/17) above the former ATH at 2,504. The Russel2000 is like the Altcoins of the stock market - they’re all smaller market cap stocks. If people are investing in the RTY, investor confidence is high, which is what we need to see for these riskier assets. This also usually marks the last phase of markets before we do end up seeing a top and the real Bear market. All of the indices are at/near All-Time highs, so we have to be cautious and keep that fact in consideration. But I believe the data is starting to point to a rotation into the riskier stuff as we’re up at these highs.

BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) is another reason I remain Bullish. We' haven’t seen much of a drop relative to years past and it’s been flirting with some major lower trendlines. That liquidation event shot BTC.D up and if we’re counting wicks, hit the .702 level of our danger zone and rolled over, which is a good sign. The Monthly RSI is about to break into Bear territory and we also just had a bearish cross on the MACD. The intraday stuff has been annoying, but the macro is screaming breakdown, which would mean the Alts are way outperforming BTC, which is also indicative of the last phase of the cycle.

Gold/Silver are in blowoffs. It’s only a matter of time until those slow and that money rotates into equities/crypto. Golds macro Fib range dating back to 2011 has a full extension at 4,700 so that’s my base for now. Silver just broke it’s former all time high around $50 and is currently at $53. I expect that to stop out somewhere between here and $75, which is the 1.618 extension of it’s 2011 range. It’s also the same area Gold stopped out in on it’s initial runup back in 2020.

I’m going to start being cautious up here at these levels. I don’t want to round trip anything in the event of everything crashing, but I also want to make sure I’m in the game for the upside. It’s also nice to have some money on the sideline so when we get those big crashes, I can scoop coins at lower prices and increase my bag size. I don’t have buy levels set ahead of time, I’ll wait for the right opportunity to present itself and then I’ll deploy the capital. The key right now is capital preservation + increasing bag size. The dollar amount will increase as we kick off into new highs, we’re here for a long time not just a good time.

I’ve outlined some levels I’m currently interested in. I’ll be paying very close attention when BTC hits it’s danger zone between 118,900-122,150. There’s a good chance I’ll set some stops on my alts when we get up to that level so if stuff crashes, I don’t ride it down. I’ll keep updating this section whenever necessary, as well as the images below! Keep in mind this is not financial advice and this is strictly me sharing what I’m planning to do in these markets.

This is going to be very fluid, so my strategy may change based on different macro factors: