Weekly Recap (April 20 - April 26, 2019)
Another “the bottom may already be in” week.
Not because price went vertical. Not because headlines suddenly turned bullish. But because multiple macro and intermarket indicators continued shifting in a direction that historically supports risk assets.
We started the week discussing whether US indices needed a cool-off phase. Stocks have remained resilient, but markets don’t move straight up forever. Healthy pauses matter. If equities consolidate without breaking structure, that can actually be bullish for crypto because it allows broader risk appetite to reset rather than collapse.
One of the clearest developments this week was Tether Dominance. We talked about how USDT.D loves this current breakdown structure, and that matters more than many realize. When stablecoin dominance breaks down, it often signals capital leaving the sidelines and rotating back into crypto. Historically, that has preceded stronger altcoin environments.
At the same time, Bitcoin dominance became a major focus. We reviewed multiple BTC.D scenarios because this is one of the most important charts in crypto right now. If BTC.D rolls over, it opens the door for Ethereum and alts to outperform. If it holds firm, BTC likely remains the primary beneficiary. Either way, dominance is giving us the roadmap.
We also addressed Bitcoin itself, where some were calling bearish continuation patterns. The bear flag discussion was useful because context always matters. Patterns in isolation can mislead. In a stronger macro backdrop with improving liquidity signals, bearish-looking structures often fail and become fuel for upside instead.
That idea tied directly into one of the cleaner technical setups of the week: the inverted Bitcoin chart showing a textbook falling wedge. Sometimes flipping the chart helps remove bias. When viewed objectively, BTC continues to show signs of compression that can resolve higher if key resistance levels break.
On the equities side, small caps gaining strength versus large caps was another encouraging tell. We reviewed RTY/SPX, and when the Russell 2000 starts outperforming mega-cap dominated indices, it usually reflects improving appetite for risk. That tends to be constructive for speculative assets like crypto.
Ethereum also took center stage this week with an alternative altseason measurement model showing confluence for $13K+. Whether ETH reaches that exact number is less important than the framework itself: ETH still appears under-owned relative to where many cycle indicators suggest it could go if rotation truly begins.
Volatility also improved. We highlighted the VIX dropping toward more favorable levels for both stocks and crypto. Lower volatility indexes typically coincide with calmer markets, stronger confidence, and better conditions for trend continuation.
One of the strongest macro confirmations this week came from the Purchasing Power of Crypto indicator. We reviewed more evidence suggesting the bottom is already in. Historically, when purchasing power metrics inflect while sentiment remains skeptical, it often marks the transition from accumulation to expansion.
So where does that leave us heading into next week?
• USDT.D breaking down = capital rotating back into crypto
• BTC.D at a critical decision point for altseason timing
• Small caps outperforming = risk appetite improving
• VIX cooling = calmer macro backdrop
• BTC compressing in bullish structures
• ETH setups still pointing to major upside potential
• Purchasing power metrics strengthening
That doesn’t guarantee immediate upside.
But it does suggest the environment is becoming more favorable while many are still waiting for obvious confirmation.
That’s usually how stronger moves begin.
Stay patient. Stay objective. Watch the relationships, not just the candles.
WAGMI.
