Weekly Recap (January 19-25, 2026)
**Anything underlined is a link to a video
Tariffs ruled early this week as the markets reacted to President Trumps threats to Greenland and NATO, but we’ve seen this playbook before. Trump makes an outlandish threat, markets overreact and dump, the threat ends up getting resolved because countries come to the table ready to negotiate. We went through the Tariff Playbook on Tuesday, since we’ve seen this before, both last October and April. This dump thus far has been significantly less than the last two and cooler heads seem to be prevailing.
The Russel2000 had an awesome week, continually setting new all-time highs and reaching the 1.618 extension on our range dating back to October. We need this indice to keep moving! Historically, we’ve seen Alts follow the RTY (both small caps) 30-90 days after the RTY busts into new highs. We’ve now entered that window. If consumer confidence is high enough to be buying risky, small cap stocks, that opens the door for riskier crypto assets as well. It hasn’t happened yet, but it will.
We brought in another macro indicator this week, Credit Spreads, and showed its inverse relationship with crypto. Credit spreads shows the risks banks are willing to take with lending. We’ve seen in the past that a majority of the credit spread tightens BEFORE we get our altseason. Altseasons happen as credit spreads are completing their tightening cycle. We are currently falling to all time lows in credit spreads and it certainly appears its entering its final drop phase, the same phase we’ve historically seen the $TOTAL3 altcoin market run. Check that video out here.
The $DXY has continued to fall as anticipated and its mirroring the 2017 and 2021 altseason conditions. The DXY historically has an inverse relationship with the crypto markets and this video shows how close this macro indicator is to our altseason run. It’s really tough out there right now when you look at the individual prices, I get it, but under the hood, everything is moving exactly as its supposed to. We’re just waiting on price to catch up!
Sentiment continues to reach historically low levels. If we look at some on-chain social data, you can see we’re at lows we havent seen since 2019. The fact of the matter is, retail just isn’t here. And you don’t see Bear markets start at these price levels with sentiment being as low as it is. This video puts data front and center to support that claim. We need to try to include data whenever we can to support our theories. “Feeling” something is going to happen is what retail does and says. We’re here to break the retail mindset. These tools help us quantify sentiment and when you marry that with price, we can get a better overall picture of the landscape as a whole.
Towards the end of the week, I put out a video titled “Bitcoin v Dominance v Alts — Where Are We?”. If you haven’t watched this video, you need to. We talk about the set up on BTC.D, Bitcon, and Alts before altseasons past and compare that roadmap to where we are now. Again, remove emotions and find data to support our theories. This video will give you a better understanding of where we are within the cycle and how some of these important indicators/indices work together.
There was some more turbulence in the crypto markets heading into the Sunday close, with more rumor swirling about Trump putting 100% tariffs on Canada if they cut a trade deal with China. Canada has since come out and said they do not intend on signing any type of deal with China, so fingers crossed that ends up being a nothing burger. This upcoming week is loaded with news; government shutdown fears, consumer confidence data, fed interest rate decision, big tech earnings reports, and December PPI inflation data. Buckle up for some volatility, but as long as my key support levels below are holding on the higher timeframe, the rest is just noise!
