Weekly Recap (March 30 - April 5, 2026)
This was a compression week.
Not the kind of week that gets people excited… but the kind of week that sets up the next big move.
Across the board — crypto, equities, macro — everything is tightening. And when everything compresses at the same time, expansion usually isn’t far behind.
We started the week digging into BTC capitulation data and Bear Market RSI levels. Historically, when BTC hits these types of capitulation percentages and RSI zones, you’re not at the beginning of a move down — you’re at the tail end of it. These are the areas where sellers get exhausted and stronger hands step in. It doesn’t mean straight up from here, but it does mean the downside is getting harder and harder to sustain.
We also revisited the Benner Cycle — a long-term macro cycle that maps out periods of hardship, growth, and opportunity. It’s not a perfect timing tool, but when you overlay it with current conditions, it continues to suggest we’re moving out of the “hard times” phase and into a more constructive environment. Again, not a trigger — but context.
On the macro side, we made a pretty clear call: Oil looks done, at least for now. Technically, it’s breaking structure, and if oil cools off, that relieves pressure on inflation. Lower inflation expectations → lower yields → better conditions for risk assets. This ties directly into everything we’re watching.
We also looked at US equities bouncing at key technical levels. This matters more than people think. Crypto doesn’t lead in isolation — it follows liquidity. If equities can hold and continue pushing higher, that opens the door for crypto to follow. If they roll over, it delays everything.
Midweek, we focused heavily on compression across charts. BTC, ETH, dominance charts, macro indicators — everything is coiling. This is what happens before expansion. The market is essentially building energy. The longer it compresses, the more aggressive the move tends to be when it resolves.
We laid out key charts to watch: Oil, BTC/USDT.D, US10Y, and the VIX. These are the levers.
• Oil → inflation pressure
• US10Y → liquidity conditions
• VIX → market fear
• USDT.D → capital on the sidelines
When you understand how these move together, you stop guessing and start reading the system.
We also revisited the Copper Pulse Indicator — and it continues to align with prior bull run conditions. Copper tends to move ahead of crypto as a proxy for global demand and liquidity. Right now, it’s signaling that risk-on conditions are trying to build again.
One of the most important videos this week was “If I Could Only Use 3 Indicators.” This is where people overcomplicate things. You don’t need 15 tools. You need a few high-quality signals that consistently work: structure, momentum, and liquidity. That’s it. Everything else is noise layered on top.
Toward the end of the week, the question became simple: is risk coming back?
The answer: it’s not here yet — but the conditions are setting up for it.
We’re seeing:
• Capitulation metrics hit
• RSI at historical bottoming zones
• Oil breaking down
• Equities bouncing
• Compression across all major charts
• Copper signaling improving conditions
That’s not a market rolling over.
That’s a market building a base.
This next move is going to come out of this compression. The only question is direction — and right now, the data is leaning bullish if key levels continue to hold.
Stay patient. Stay focused. Don’t overtrade chop.
Expansion follows compression.
WAGMI.
