Weekly Recap (February 16-22, 2026)
*All underlined text can be clicked to watch the corresponding video*
This week was less about panic and more about positioning.
After the prior week’s stabilization, we started to see structure develop under the surface. Not explosive upside. Not capitulation. Just slow rotation signals beginning to form. When markets get quiet after volatility, that’s when the real tells start to show up.
Early in the week, we took partial profits on strength. I sold 5% of $JASMY at $0.00600 and 5% of $AIOZ at $0.0686. Not because I’m bearish — but because disciplined rotation is how you stay in the game long term. Strength into resistance is where you trim. Weakness into support is where you prepare. That’s the framework.
We also walked through the Purchasing Power of Crypto as a macro indicator. This one is important. When liquidity conditions improve and real purchasing power trends upward, crypto tends to lag slightly before responding aggressively. Historically, alt expansions occur as purchasing power inflects — not when it’s peaking. That nuance matters. We’re watching for that inflection.
On Bitcoin Dominance, the weekly RSI finally started rolling over. That’s not a guarantee of altseason — but historically, when BTC.D weekly momentum begins its descent, it signals rotation risk for alts in a positive way. The last two cycles followed that roadmap. Dominance peaks, momentum rolls over, then capital disperses outward. We are early in that process, but it has begun.
Macro-wise, unemployment data came in and rejected at key resistance levels on the chart. Counterintuitively, that rejection is constructive for crypto. When economic stress metrics stall at resistance, it often precedes easing liquidity conditions or at least stabilizing ones. Markets move on second derivatives, not headlines.
We also broke down the JP Morgan – Bitcoin relationship this week. These two charts have essentially moved hand in hand, even though there has been a decoupling from the stock market. An interesting dynamic at play.
On the equities side, we looked at the Aggregate US Stock Market chart — RTY + SPX + DJI + NDQ. Small caps continue to be critical. If the Russell 2000 keeps pushing and holding higher structure, that’s the green light for broader risk appetite. Crypto doesn’t move in a vacuum. When small caps lead, alts eventually follow. We’ve seen this script before.
Mid-week, geopolitical tension headlines started circulating again, and markets reacted the way they always do: quick dip, fast repricing, then stabilization. We’ve seen this movie enough times to know the difference between narrative-driven volatility and structural breakdown. So far, this still looks like narrative noise.
On Ethereum, we discussed the short- and long-term view. ETH continues to wait on a higher timeframe shift. The structure isn’t explosive yet — but if ETH reclaims key resistance levels with conviction, that’s when the tone of the entire alt market changes. ETH leadership is still the tell.
We also revisited the “Under 10 / Above 70” Fear & Greed strategy. Historically, buying under 10 and trimming above 70 has outperformed emotional trading by a mile. Right now sentiment remains suppressed relative to prior cycle peaks. Retail still isn’t here in force. That matters. This video is definitely worth a watch if you didn’t get a chance to watch it last week.
Toward the end of the week, we saw early-week sells cool off and markets begin stabilizing again. Nothing euphoric. Nothing broken.
This upcoming week will tell us whether BTC dominance continues its descent, whether equities maintain strength, and whether ETH can finally show relative leadership.
There is still potential of another flush, especially with political tensions. It doesn’t feel exciting yet. That’s usually how transitions start.
Stay data-driven. Rotate with intention. Don’t chase noise.
WAGMI.
