Weekly Recap (February 23-March 1, 2026)
**Everything underlined is a link to the corresponding video
This was a “math > hype” week.
Not a headline-driven week. Not an emotional week. A positioning week.
Under the surface, a lot happened structurally — and if you were only watching price candles, you probably missed the bigger message.
We started the week breaking down the Bitcoin/SPX relationship and how crypto is now extremely oversold relative to equities. Historically, when BTC underperforms stocks to this degree, it doesn’t stay that way for long. Either stocks roll over — or crypto catches up. And given the broader liquidity backdrop we’ve been tracking, the probability leans toward crypto mean reversion rather than systemic equity collapse.
We also revisited the Weekly RSI strategy. This is one of the cleanest tools we use. Weekly RSI extremes have historically marked major turning points — not minor bounces. When you zoom out and remove intraday noise, the structure becomes clearer. Retail gets chopped on the 1H chart. Institutions position on the weekly.
Midweek, we mapped out the BTC.D + USDT.D roadmap — short and long term. This is the rotation tell. Bitcoin dominance and stablecoin dominance don’t move randomly. When USDT.D peaks and rolls while BTC.D begins distribution, that’s when capital disperses into alts. We’re not in full-blown altseason yet — but the early rotation mechanics are beginning to align.
The Copper Pulse Indicator was another big focus. Conditions right now closely resemble the early phases of past altcoin expansions. Copper is often a leading signal for global liquidity and risk appetite. In prior cycles, when copper stabilized and turned before crypto, alts followed shortly after. The pulse is matching those historical conditions again.
We also asked an important question: Is Coinbase leading? Historically, COIN has front-run major crypto expansions. When Coinbase starts outperforming BTC on relative strength, it’s usually not random. It’s positioning. Watching traditional equity proxies for crypto exposure gives us another layer of confirmation beyond just the token charts.
One of the more powerful comparisons this week was 2018 ADA versus our current QA portfolio structure. The setup is eerily similar to prior compression phases before expansion. Same volatility contraction. Same sentiment exhaustion. Same disbelief stage. Markets don’t repeat perfectly — but they rhyme enough to respect the pattern.
On the equities side, we looked at short-term trade setups in names like RBLX and AAPL. Risk appetite in growth equities still matters. If high-beta tech continues stabilizing, it reinforces the broader risk-on narrative that crypto needs to accelerate.
Midweek I re-entered some swing positions after locking prior gains — up roughly 25% on those trades. This wasn’t random buying. It was structure-based re-entry. Sell strength. Buy structure. Repeat. We’ll be doing a lot more of this moving forward.
Toward the end of the week, geopolitical tension resurfaced with military strike headlines. We broke down the historical effects of past military strikes on Bitcoin. The data is clear: initial volatility spike → short-term dip → recovery within weeks. Typically, about 9 days. Panic reactions rarely align with long-term opportunity.
If you remove emotion and just look at the data:
• BTC extremely oversold vs SPX
• Weekly RSI nearing historic inflection zones
• Copper conditions matching prior alt runs
• BTC.D + USDT.D rotation setup forming
• Coinbase showing early relative strength
• Sentiment still depressed
That’s not a top structure.
That’s compression before expansion.
Price hasn’t fully confirmed yet. But under the hood, the math continues to line up.
As we head into March, the key will be whether BTC can reclaim higher timeframe resistance while dominance rolls over. If that happens, the rotation accelerates quickly.
Stay disciplined. Stay patient. Let structure confirm.
WAGMI.
