Weekly Recap (July 20 - July 26, 2026)

This was a "rotation is getting closer" week.

For months, we've been talking about the transition from Bitcoin leadership to Ethereum leadership, and eventually to altcoin leadership. This week didn't fully confirm that rotation, but several charts moved one step closer.

We started the week looking at TOTAL2 pressing against a major breakout level while Stablecoin Dominance continued sitting on the edge of breaking down. This is one of my favorite macro combinations. Historically, when TOTAL2 (the crypto market excluding Bitcoin) breaks higher while stablecoin dominance falls, capital begins rotating into the broader crypto market. It's exactly the type of setup we've been waiting to see.

We also looked at Bitcoin's long-term holders. One of the more surprising on-chain developments is that long-term holders have begun showing signs of capitulation. Historically, this tends to happen much closer to major bottoms than major tops. When even the strongest hands begin selling into weakness, markets are often closer to exhausting sellers than creating new ones.

Ethereum was another major focus this week, and for the first time in a while, its chart is beginning to show real signs of life. ETH has spent months frustrating investors, but structurally it's beginning to improve. If Ethereum can continue building momentum, history suggests the rest of the altcoin market won't be far behind.

Bitcoin Dominance also continues approaching a critical moment. We've discussed this 48-week range for months, and it appears to be nearing its conclusion. Dominance doesn't stay compressed forever. When it finally resolves, it will likely determine whether the next major move belongs primarily to Bitcoin—or whether capital begins flowing aggressively into alts.

That idea became even more interesting as we started looking at several altcoin/Bitcoin pairs.

WIF/BTC continues building what appears to be a three-month bottoming structure. AIOZ/BTC remains trapped inside a lengthy 175-day range, but prolonged consolidations often precede meaningful expansions. XRP/BTC continues holding its 200-week moving average while battling an important Fibonacci level. JASMY/BTC is approaching what looks like a 205-day bottoming process.

Individually, none of these charts prove anything.

Collectively, they paint a very interesting picture.

When multiple alt/BTC pairs begin bottoming at the same time, it's usually less about the individual projects and more about a broader shift in market leadership.

Toward the end of the week, Bitcoin finally reached one of the major resistance levels we've been discussing for weeks. The fact that price respected this area shouldn't surprise anyone—we've had these levels mapped out well in advance. The important question now isn't whether resistance exists.

It's what happens next.

Does Bitcoin consolidate and allow Ethereum and alts to catch up?

Or does BTC continue leading before the next rotation begins?

We also introduced one of the more unique macro relationships we've looked at recently: the Bitcoin/Apple indicator. While it may sound unusual at first, comparing Bitcoin against one of the largest companies in the world offers another way to evaluate relative strength and broader market leadership. Like many of our macro tools, it's not designed to predict exact dates, it's designed to provide context.

Throughout the week, one theme continued surfacing:

The individual charts are beginning to agree with the macro thesis.

We're seeing:

• TOTAL2 pressing a major breakout level.

• Stablecoin dominance threatening to break down.

• Ethereum beginning to show relative strength.

• Bitcoin Dominance approaching the end of a 48-week range.

• Multiple alt/BTC pairs building long-term bottoms.

• Bitcoin reaching the resistance levels we've been tracking.

• Long-term holder behavior resembling prior major lows.

Could we still see more chop?

Absolutely.

Markets rarely transition from one phase to another in a straight line.

But the evidence continues building.

The pieces continue falling into place.

And if these relationships continue resolving the way they have historically, the second half of this cycle could look very different than the first.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined. Let the data—not the emotions—lead the way.

WAGMI.