Weekly Recap (July 6 - July 12)

This was a "the evidence keeps stacking" week.

Nothing this week fundamentally changed the thesis.

Instead, we continued adding more pieces to the puzzle, and almost every new indicator pointed toward the same conclusion: this correction is looking more like a macro bottom than the start of a new bear market.

We started the week looking at Bitcoin's bullish divergences on both the daily and weekly timeframes. One divergence can be interesting. Multiple higher timeframe divergences occurring simultaneously are much more significant. Historically, these have formed near major corrective lows rather than major cycle tops. Price may still chop around in the short term, but momentum underneath the surface is beginning to improve.

Inflation data was another big talking point this week. As we've been expecting, inflation continues cooling, making additional rate hikes increasingly unlikely. That's an important shift because markets trade future expectations, not current conditions. If inflation continues easing, the conversation naturally shifts toward easier financial conditions over time—a backdrop that has historically favored risk assets.

We also revisited one of crypto's biggest debates: the four-year cycle.

For years, many have argued Bitcoin simply follows a predictable four-year rhythm. But when we compared previous cycles to today's environment, it became clear that this cycle has several characteristics that make it unique. Institutional participation, ETF demand, corporate balance sheets, and macro liquidity are creating dynamics we've never had before. History remains our guide—but it shouldn't become our prison.

One of my favorite macro relationships this week was TLT sitting near all-time lows. Long-duration Treasury bonds have historically shared an inverse relationship with liquidity conditions. When TLT begins recovering from deeply depressed levels, it has often coincided with improving conditions for Bitcoin and crypto. It's another intermarket signal quietly lining up beneath the surface.

The Copper-to-Gold ratio also continued flashing "risk-on." This is one of those indicators that rarely gets talked about in crypto circles, but it has historically done an excellent job measuring global growth expectations. When copper begins outperforming gold, markets are typically becoming more comfortable taking risk. That's exactly the type of backdrop crypto wants to see.

We also held another macro livestream this week covering Bitcoin, oil, silver, and the Russell 2000. The common thread between all of them remains liquidity. Oil continues behaving constructively, precious metals have cooled after their explosive run, and small caps continue acting as one of the best leading indicators for broader risk appetite.

Toward the end of the week, the amount of Bitcoin macro confluence became difficult to ignore.

We looked at monthly moving averages, RSI readings, historical ratios, and multiple long-term indicators. No single chart proves anything. But when five, six, or seven independent indicators all begin pointing toward the same conclusion, that's when probabilities begin to shift.

Ethereum also remains one of the charts I'm watching most closely.

We compared the current structure to the 2022-2023 bottom, and the similarities continue standing out. Just like Bitcoin, ETH has spent months frustrating participants through sideways action. Historically, that's exactly how major bases are built—not with excitement, but with boredom.

One of the strongest confirmations this week came from TOTAL3, the crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. The chart continues resembling a textbook double bottom. If that structure confirms, it would suggest the broader altcoin market has already spent months building a foundation beneath the surface.

So where does that leave us heading into next week?

• Inflation continues cooling, reducing the odds of further hikes
• BTC printing bullish divergences on multiple higher timeframes
• Multiple macro indicators pointing toward a Bitcoin bottom
• Copper/Gold ratio continues signaling risk-on conditions
• TLT sitting at historically important levels
• Ethereum still mirroring prior bottoming structures
• TOTAL3 continuing to build a potential double bottom

If you've been following Quantum Circle for a while, you've probably noticed something.

Every week, we're not inventing a new narrative.

We're adding another piece of evidence to the same thesis.

Could we still see volatility? Absolutely.

Could we still have another shakeout? Of course.

But the number of indicators aligning continues to grow—not shrink.

The market is asking one thing from investors right now:

Patience.

Stay disciplined. Stay data-driven. Let the evidence—not the emotions—guide your decisions.

WAGMI.