Weekly Recap (June 15 - June 19, 2026)

This was a "pressure is building" week.

Not a breakout week. Not an altseason week. A pressure week.

The market spent most of the week frustrating both bulls and bears, but when we zoomed out and focused on the data rather than the daily candles, the bigger picture continued to improve.

We started the week discussing Ethereum and the growing signs of liquidity flowing into ETH. This has been one of the biggest pieces of the thesis for months. Historically, Bitcoin leads, Ethereum follows, and then the broader altcoin market accelerates. While ETH hasn't fully broken loose yet, the ETHUSD and ETH/BTC charts continue suggesting capital is slowly rotating in its direction.

At the same time, several inverse macro charts began flashing bearish signals. Normally that sounds concerning, but these are indicators like the VIX and other risk-off measures that tend to move opposite crypto and equities. When inverse charts weaken, it often creates a more favorable backdrop for risk assets. The takeaway wasn't that everything is immediately bullish—it was that many of the headwinds we've been tracking continue losing strength.

Bitcoin spent much of the week approaching key resistance levels, and we broke down the major areas that matter moving forward. Every trend eventually reaches decision points. The market doesn't care what we want it to do—it cares about levels. The next major resistance zones are becoming increasingly important because a clean break would significantly strengthen the bullish case.

One of the most encouraging developments came from Total Crypto Market Cap, which is now printing a weekly bullish divergence. Historically, weekly divergences are not something to ignore. They often form during periods when sentiment is weak, participants are frustrated, and the market is quietly building a foundation beneath the surface. That's exactly the environment we're in today.

We also introduced another on-chain framework using Bitcoin's 200-week moving average quantile regression. While the name sounds complicated, the message is simple: Bitcoin continues trading in a range that has historically been associated with long-term opportunity rather than long-term danger. The further we study the data, the harder it becomes to support the idea that we're in a cycle-ending environment.

The on-chain data became even more interesting when we examined Bitcoin's percentage of supply in profit. Historically, true cycle tops occur when an overwhelming majority of coins are deep in profit and euphoria dominates sentiment. That's simply not what the data is showing today. The market may be recovering, but it doesn't resemble the type of environment that has historically marked major tops.

Interest rates were another major focus this week. We looked at the cold hard data surrounding rates and Bitcoin, removing opinions from the equation. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming higher rates automatically kill crypto. History doesn't support that conclusion. Some of Bitcoin's strongest advances have occurred during periods when rates remained elevated. Liquidity matters. Economic expectations matter. The relationship is much more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

Toward the end of the week, one of the most important charts we reviewed was OTHERS/BTC pressing against a four-year trendline. This chart represents the broader altcoin market relative to Bitcoin, and it's reaching a critical inflection point. If this trendline breaks, it would signal a meaningful shift in relative strength toward alts. We've been talking about pressure building for months, and this chart is beginning to reflect exactly that.

Throughout the week, the theme remained consistent:

The market still feels slow.

The data does not.

We're seeing:

• Liquidity gradually rotating toward Ethereum

• Weekly bullish divergences forming

• On-chain metrics remaining constructive

• BTC supply-in-profit data far from historical euphoric extremes

• OTHERS/BTC pressing major breakout levels

• Macro headwinds continuing to ease

That's not the type of environment where I become aggressively bearish.

It's the type of environment where I continue preparing for opportunity.

The market is still asking for patience.

The good news is that the evidence supporting the thesis continues to grow.

Stay disciplined. Stay objective. Let the data lead.

WAGMI.