Weekly Recap (May 4 - May 10, 2026)

This was a “the thesis is starting to play out” week.

For months, we’ve been talking about the idea that crypto wasn’t broken — it was building. Compression, skepticism, weak sentiment, macro alignment. The ingredients were there.

This week, we finally started seeing more evidence of that pressure releasing.

Bitcoin broke above $80K, and importantly, it continued following the broader 2022 fractal roadmap we’ve been discussing for months. No, fractals are never perfect. But the sequence of behavior — disbelief, grind, chop, then expansion — continues lining up surprisingly well. We’re not married to the fractal, but we respect when price continues validating it.

We also spent time discussing BTC tops versus BTC Dominance tops — and the historical relationship is incredibly important. In prior cycles, BTC.D itself topped before BTC topped. Why does that matter? Because it means Bitcoin strength does not necessarily mean altseason is over. In many cases, the biggest alt moves come after BTC has already done most of its work.

That idea ties directly into one of the strongest developments this week: TOTAL market cap flashing a bullish SMA cross while USDT.D continues setting up for a drop. Historically, when total crypto market cap strengthens while stablecoin dominance weakens, capital rotates into risk. It’s one of the cleaner intermarket tells we have.

We also revisited purchasing power of crypto — and once again, the thesis continues tracking. This indicator has been one of the most important under-the-radar signals in this cycle. Historically, when purchasing power begins improving while sentiment remains skeptical, crypto tends to outperform expectations. So far, the roadmap continues to hold.

On the equities side, we revisited one of the biggest signals for alt timing: the Russell 2000. RTY continues acting as one of the cleanest leading indicators for altcoin breakouts. Historically, small caps breaking higher tend to front-run stronger crypto performance by roughly 30–90 days. If Russell strength continues, it remains a major green flag for alts.

Memecoins also quietly started showing strength again. Laugh at them all you want, but memecoin market cap is often a real sentiment gauge. When speculative pockets begin heating up, it usually signals risk appetite is returning beneath the surface.

On the alt side, we had some really constructive developments.

AIOZ exploded roughly 40% off a key technical level after respecting support exactly where we expected. This is why structure matters. The market rewards patience when levels align.

WIF also spent the week kissing its upper trendline, with higher timeframes continuing to look primed. These are the moments where charts transition from “looks interesting” to “needs attention.”

We also revisited Elliott Wave and Fib relationships, specifically around the idea that alts/BTC still appears to be missing a final fifth wave higher. Again, no indicator works alone — but when Elliott Wave structure, Fib confluence, macro conditions, and dominance charts all begin pointing in the same direction, probabilities improve.

One of the bigger educational pieces this week was breaking down the four strongest Fibonacci levels for trading. Markets aren’t random. Certain Fib levels consistently act as magnets, support, or rejection zones — and understanding which levels matter most can dramatically improve entries and exits.

So where does that leave us heading into next week?

• BTC reclaiming $80K and following the broader roadmap
• TOTAL market cap flashing bullish signals
• USDT.D still favoring risk-on rotation
• Russell 2000 continuing to support alt timing
• Purchasing power of crypto validating the thesis
• Memecoin strength returning = risk appetite improving
• Multiple alt structures beginning to wake up

That doesn’t mean straight up from here.

Markets still pull back. Volatility still exists. Chop still happens.

But for the first time in a while, it feels like the market is beginning to reward patience.

The ingredients are there.

Now we wait for confirmation.

Stay disciplined. Stay patient. Let the charts do the talking.

WAGMI.